Identifying Problems and Opportunities
Problems and opportunities do not announce themselves. They are recognized and ultimately defined by the decision maker. However, people are not perfectly efficient or neutral thinking machines, so problems are often misdiagnosed and opportunities are overlooked. The project manager's role is to correctly understand a problem and to identify opportunities to correct such problems -- not always as easy as it sounds! Two factors that interfere with identifying problems and opportunities are the decision makers imperfect perceptions and diagnostic skills.
Perceptual Biases
People define problems or opportunities based on their perceptions, values, and assumptions. Unfortunately, selective attention mechanisms cause relevant information to be unconsciously screened out. Moreover, employees, clients, and others with vested interests can influence the decision makers perceptions so that information is more or less likely to be perceived as a problem or opportunity. Thus, politics and negotiation frequently mark decision making.
A broader perceptual challenge is that people see problems or opportunities through their mental models. These working models of the world help us to make sense of our environment, but they also perpetuate assumptions that blind us to new realities.
Poor Diagnostic Skills
Perceptual problems block our ability to effectively diagnose problems and recognize opportunities. People want to make sense of situations, so they quickly define problems based on stereotypes and other unsubstantiated information. They fail to see problems or opportunities due to insufficient time or information. Another concern is that organizations are complex systems, so decision makers may have trouble identifying where the main causes of problems occur.
Another common diagnostic error is defining problems in terms of their solutions. Someone who says, "The problem is that we need more control over our suppliers," has fallen into this trap. The problem might be that suppliers aren't delivering their product in time, but this statement focuses on a solution. The tendency to focus on solutions is based on a bias for action among business leaders as well as the need to reduce uncertainty. However, focusing on solutions can short-circuit the problem-identification stage of decision making. The solution-oriented problem also occurs because decision makers receive positive reinforcement from actions that worked in the past. Former Sunbeam CEO "Chainsaw" Al Dunlap saw the appliance manufacturers problems in terms of the need to slash payroll, just as he had done at Scott Paper and other companies. Other executives introduce a customer service program whenever they face a problem because this solution has worked for them in the past.
The point here is that decision makers might look at problems from the perspective of their ready-made solutions. Sometimes, they search for problems so they can apply their existing solution.
Identifying Problems and Opportunities More Effectively
Recognizing problems and opportunities will always be a challenge, but the process can be improved through awareness of these perceptual and diagnostic limitations. By recognizing how mental models restrict a persons understanding of the world, decision makers learn to openly consider other perspectives of reality. Discussing the situation with colleagues can also minimize perceptual and diagnostic weaknesses. Decision makers discover blind spots in problem identification by hearing how others perceive certain information and diagnose them. Opportunities also become apparent when outsiders explore this information from their different mental models.
Another strategy for problem identification is to create early-warning systems. If customer satisfaction ratings drop or costs increase beyond a fixed mark, executive procedures or computer programs can alert decision makers to these concerns. These cues may be determined from past practice or from preset goals for major stakeholders (customers, shareholders, employees, etc.). The effectiveness of these early-warning signs is only as good as the willingness of people to recognize them. Still, they may help people realize that problems exist before the situation deteriorates further.
Information technology also helps to identify opportunities and problems. Many firms now rely on data mining -- computer programs that search through large databases and organize this information into meaningful trends. Data mining minimizes perceptual problems that occur when people manually look for trends and patterns in mountains of data. Other technology guides employees through the problem-finding process. For instance, line crews at Great Lakes Power Ltd. use decision support software called Which & Why to help them identify functional and safety problems with the 25,000 or more electrical poles they need to inspect. Previously, crews used a paper-based survey of each pole, which left plenty of room for personal bias.