A General Model of Decision Making
When Albert Einstein was asked how he would save the world in one hour, he replied that he would spend the first 55 minutes defining the problem and the last five minutes solving it.
Problem identification is the first step in decision making and arguably the most important step. A problem is a deviation between the current and the desired situation. This deviation is a symptom of more fundamental root causes in the organization. We need to correctly identify the problem in order to choose the best solution This occurs by understanding the underlying causes of the symptom(s) that catch our attention. The decision process is then directed towards changing the root causes so that the symptoms are reduced or eliminated.
The second step is to determine the most appropriate decision style. One important question is whether this is a programmed decision or non-programmed decision. A programmed decision follows standard operating procedures. There is no need to explore alternative solutions because the optimal solution has already been identified and documented. For example, when customers call a General Electric Answer Center, operators key in the problem and a computer database of 1.5 million issues provides the best solution for the client. In contrast, new, complex, or ill-defined problems require nonprogrammed decisions. In these cases, decision makers must search for alternatives and possibly develop a unique solution. As problems reappear, however, programmed decision routines are formed. In this respect, programmed decisions drive out non-programmed decisions because we strive for predictable, routine situations.
The third step in the general decision model is to develop a list of possible solutions. This usually begins by searching for ready-made solutions, such as practices that have worked well on similar problems. If an acceptable solution cannot be found, decision makers try to design a custom-made solution or modify an existing one. B.C.
The fourth step involves choosing the best alternative. In a purely rational process, this would involve identifying all factors against which the alternatives are judged, assigning weights reflecting the importance of those factors, rating each alternative on those factors, and calculating each alternatives total value from the ratings and factor weights.
In the fifth step, decision makers must rally employees and mobilize sufficient resources to translate their decisions into action. They must consider the motivation, ability, and role perceptions of employees implementing the solution, as well as resources to facilitate its implementation.
The last step in the decision model involves evaluating whether the gap has narrowed between "what is" and "what ought to be." Ideally, this information should come from systematic benchmarks, so that relevant feedback is objective and easily observed.
The general model of decision making seems so logical, yet it is rarely observed in organizations. Decision makers experience a number of personal limitations that make it difficult to identify problems and opportunities, evaluate and choose solutions, and evaluate decision outcomes.